Agnuak

Next 7 daysExtreme100%

Fire season starts in about 5 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 201529,368
Trend: +5%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +96%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	18376	1794
2002	27324	4785
2003	16339	4662
2004	17441	4813
2005	25989	7382
2006	16521	4548
2007	24829	7010
2008	19476	5523
2009	22293	6446
2010	15683	4365
2011	24118	6836
2012	20704	17419
2013	22661	22661
2014	20615	20615
2015	29368	29368
2016	25460	25460
2017	22724	22724
2018	25607	35014
2019	15763	32662
2020	18544	36042
2021	26897	52404
2022	21576	42043
2023	22431	44902
2024	21057	41395
2025	22838	45383
2026	17672	51002

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 19.1×

Raw data

› 96.4×

usual = 1×

This month: 934
Usual (median): 49
Rank: 1 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 96.4× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 19.1×.

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~717.6

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sun37°

Mon38°

Tue38°

Wed38°

Thu38°

Fri38°

Sat40°

Right now

early November

This week403

This week is more active than 96% of past years at this time

Year to date17,672

#8 of 26 yearsNormal: 16,379

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~718 expected · usual 174

Next 3 months

About usual

~13,558 expected · usual 15,670

likely 2,563–17,060 · usual 6,140–27,184

Season

Starts ~14 December
Peak ~4 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid December – late March

Onset: mid December
Peak: early January
End: late March

Critical windows

mid December – early March
77% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +5%/10Raw: +96%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.79).

Unusual years

8

2003
16,339
season ended 3 weeks early
2009
22,293
season began 5 weeks early
2019
15,763
season began 3 weeks late
2020
18,544
season ended 3 weeks late
2021
26,897
season ended 3 weeks late
2023
22,431
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2024
21,057
season ended 5 weeks late
2026
17,672
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 4 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Agnuak

Next 7 daysExtreme100%

Fire season starts in about 5 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 201529,368
Trend: +5%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +96%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	18376	1794
2002	27324	4785
2003	16339	4662
2004	17441	4813
2005	25989	7382
2006	16521	4548
2007	24829	7010
2008	19476	5523
2009	22293	6446
2010	15683	4365
2011	24118	6836
2012	20704	17419
2013	22661	22661
2014	20615	20615
2015	29368	29368
2016	25460	25460
2017	22724	22724
2018	25607	35014
2019	15763	32662
2020	18544	36042
2021	26897	52404
2022	21576	42043
2023	22431	44902
2024	21057	41395
2025	22838	45383
2026	17672	51002

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 19.1×

Raw data

› 96.4×

usual = 1×

This month: 934
Usual (median): 49
Rank: 1 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 96.4× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 19.1×.

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~717.6

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sun37°

Mon38°

Tue38°

Wed38°

Thu38°

Fri38°

Sat40°

Right now

early November

This week403

This week is more active than 96% of past years at this time

Year to date17,672

#8 of 26 yearsNormal: 16,379

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~718 expected · usual 174

Next 3 months

About usual

~13,558 expected · usual 15,670

likely 2,563–17,060 · usual 6,140–27,184

Season

Starts ~14 December
Peak ~4 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid December – late March

Onset: mid December
Peak: early January
End: late March

Critical windows

mid December – early March
77% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +5%/10Raw: +96%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.79).

Unusual years

8

2003
16,339
season ended 3 weeks early
2009
22,293
season began 5 weeks early
2019
15,763
season began 3 weeks late
2020
18,544
season ended 3 weeks late
2021
26,897
season ended 3 weeks late
2023
22,431
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2024
21,057
season ended 5 weeks late
2026
17,672
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 4 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson