Gamo

Next 7 daysModerate39%

Fire season starts in about 1 week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 20071,450
Trend: −28%/ 10significant · on raw data: +77%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1425	97
2002	1317	149
2003	707	133
2004	1030	184
2005	1142	198
2006	732	118
2007	1450	280
2008	1143	196
2009	684	109
2010	777	157
2011	760	121
2012	1016	963
2013	847	847
2014	625	625
2015	857	857
2016	476	476
2017	563	563
2018	435	655
2019	968	1909
2020	430	862
2021	1169	2332
2022	597	1261
2023	371	781
2024	624	1217
2025	1084	2226
2026	635	1847

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.54×

Raw data

1.8×

usual = 1×

This month: 6.4
Usual (median): 12
Rank: 17 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 1.8× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.54×.

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~17.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (46%)↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun30°

Mon30°

Tue32°

Wed31°

Thu32°

Fri33°

Sat34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~17 expected · usual 12

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~271 expected · usual 425

likely 83–754 · usual 29–1,133

Season

Starts ~16 November
Peak ~8 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid November – early March

Onset: mid November
Peak: early February
End: early March

Critical windows

mid December – early March
77% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −28%/10Raw: +77%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.0× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.07).

Unusual years

4

2004
1,030
season ended 3 weeks late
2020
430
season began 13 weeks early
2023
371
season began 12 weeks early
2026
635
season began 16 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson