Bahir Dar Special Zone

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season starts in about 1 week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – mid March
Record year: 200184
Trend: −114%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	84	0
2002	66	1
2003	33	0
2004	33	0
2005	33	0
2006	32	0
2007	35	0
2008	32	0
2009	34	0
2010	32	0
2011	32	0
2012	3	0
2013	1	1
2014	0	0
2015	0	0
2016	1	1
2017	0	0
2018	0	0
2019	0	1
2020	0	0
2021	0	0
2022	1	4
2023	0	0
2024	0	0
2025	1	1
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

No rain expected in the coming days↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sun23°

Mon23°

Tue24°

Wed23°

Thu23°

Fri23°

Sat23°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~0.0 expected · usual 6.6

likely 0.0–3.4 · usual 0.0–12

Season

Starts ~16 November
Peak ~18 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid November – mid July

Onset: mid November
Peak: mid January
End: mid July

Critical windows

mid December – mid March
40% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −114%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.85). ODLAR's record changes level in 2013 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

16

2001
84
84× the normal annual activity
peak 10× stronger than normal
2002
66
66× the normal annual activity
peak 8.4× stronger than normal
2003
33
33× the normal annual activity
2004
33
33× the normal annual activity
2005
33
33× the normal annual activity
2006
32
32× the normal annual activity
2007
35
35× the normal annual activity
2008
32
32× the normal annual activity
2009
34
34× the normal annual activity
2010
32
32× the normal annual activity
2011
32
32× the normal annual activity
2012
3
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 25 weeks early
2013
1
season began 19 weeks late
season ended 15 weeks early
2016
1
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 24 weeks early
2022
1
season began 20 weeks late
season ended 14 weeks early
2025
1
season began 18 weeks late
season ended 16 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson