East Wellega

Next 7 daysModerate37%

Fire season starts in about 8 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid January – early April
Record year: 200110,752
Trend: −21%/ 10significant · on raw data: +90%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	10752	910
2002	9448	1106
2003	8317	1856
2004	8248	1770
2005	9830	2179
2006	9724	2114
2007	10373	2298
2008	8663	1994
2009	8276	1827
2010	6677	1418
2011	8405	1892
2012	8497	7783
2013	8346	8346
2014	5836	5836
2015	7939	7939
2016	7916	7916
2017	6724	6724
2018	7835	9601
2019	4713	9419
2020	5781	11615
2021	5916	11416
2022	5761	11308
2023	6930	13403
2024	7325	14356
2025	6275	12503
2026	4884	14276

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 12.1×

Raw data

› 34.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 51
Usual (median): 4.2
Rank: 2 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 34.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 12.1×.

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~31.9

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun27°

Mon27°

Tue28°

Wed27°

Thu27°

Fri27°

Sat28°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~32 expected · usual 28

Next 3 months

About usual

~2,326 expected · usual 2,223

likely 1,037–3,389 · usual 889–3,821

Season

Starts ~4 January
Peak ~8 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early January – early April

Onset: early January
Peak: early February
End: early April

Critical windows

mid January – early April
79% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −21%/10Raw: +90%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2014 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

2

2002
9,448
season began 4 weeks early
2019
4,713
only 0.6× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson