South Gonder

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season starts in about 6 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early February – early May
Record year: 2008160
Trend: −25%/ 10significant · on raw data: +100%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	57	4
2002	41	2
2003	70	11
2004	35	2
2005	58	6
2006	35	4
2007	47	4
2008	160	21
2009	46	4
2010	70	7
2011	40	7
2012	43	35
2013	28	28
2014	31	31
2015	47	47
2016	36	36
2017	25	25
2018	33	55
2019	22	41
2020	25	51
2021	27	52
2022	19	48
2023	33	60
2024	37	78
2025	40	94
2026	9	56

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

An active part of the fire season↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sun24°

Mon24°

Tue25°

Wed24°

Thu25°

Fri25°

Sat24°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~4.4 expected · usual 8.6

likely 1.0–15 · usual 0.0–17

Season

Starts ~21 December
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid December – early May

Onset: mid December
Peak: early March
End: early May

Critical windows

early February – early May
59% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −25%/10Raw: +100%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2013 (p 0.004): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

7

2001
57
peak 2.8× stronger than normal
2008
160
4.3× the normal annual activity
peak 10.0× stronger than normal
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks early
2010
70
peak 2.6× stronger than normal
season ended 3 weeks early
2014
31
season began 6 weeks early
2022
19
season began 8 weeks late
2023
33
season began 6 weeks late
2026
9
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 8 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson