East Harerghe

Next 7 daysHigh52%

Fire season starts in about 4 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 2020829
Trend: +22%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +75%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	362	8
2002	317	7
2003	232	22
2004	168	12
2005	358	43
2006	238	24
2007	679	100
2008	430	55
2009	164	11
2010	348	49
2011	407	52
2012	485	454
2013	595	595
2014	731	731
2015	441	441
2016	97	97
2017	116	116
2018	174	300
2019	283	557
2020	829	1632
2021	747	1404
2022	154	312
2023	88	190
2024	828	1699
2025	781	1542
2026	145	363

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

1.6×

usual = 1×

This month: 4.0
Usual (median): 2.5
Rank: 6 of 26

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~8.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (29%)↑

Sun29°

Mon29°

Tue29°

Wed29°

Thu30°

Fri30°

Sat31°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~8.2 expected · usual 5.7

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~201 expected · usual 260

likely 46–570 · usual 18–725

Season

Starts ~7 December
Peak ~22 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early December – mid March

Onset: early December
Peak: late February
End: mid March

Critical windows

mid December – early March
76% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +22%/10Raw: +75%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 20.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

4

2010
348
season ended 5 weeks early
2018
174
season ended 4 weeks early
2022
154
season ended 4 weeks late
2023
88
season ended 3 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson