Siti

Next 7 daysHigh53%

Fire season: about 33 weeks left · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid January – late March
Record year: 2023711
Trend: +34%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +62%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	232	23
2002	133	14
2003	34	0
2004	77	8
2005	49	2
2006	68	7
2007	105	16
2008	112	19
2009	38	1
2010	69	7
2011	186	39
2012	29	27
2013	97	97
2014	85	85
2015	57	57
2016	22	22
2017	136	136
2018	37	62
2019	65	110
2020	121	241
2021	266	556
2022	292	585
2023	711	1410
2024	156	305
2025	517	983
2026	315	1031

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 5.5×

usual = 1×

This month: 7.7
Usual (median): 1.4
Rank: 5 of 26

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~3.9

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Fires detected in recent days↑

Sun34°

Mon35°

Tue35°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri34°

Sat34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~3.9 expected · usual 2.1

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~47 expected · usual 35

likely 7.8–128 · usual 0.3–103

Season

Ends ~28 June
Peak ~8 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid October – late June

Onset: mid October
Peak: early February
End: late June

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid January – late March
37% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +34%/10Raw: +62%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 26.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2020 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

7

2011
186
season began 11 weeks late
2013
97
season ended 16 weeks early
2014
85
season began 11 weeks late
2015
57
season began 13 weeks late
2020
121
season ended 14 weeks early
2023
711
7.3× the normal annual activity
2025
517
5.3× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson