Mekelle

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season starts in about 1 week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 200184
Trend: −113%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	84	0
2002	64	0
2003	33	0
2004	33	0
2005	33	0
2006	32	0
2007	35	0
2008	32	0
2009	34	0
2010	32	0
2011	32	0
2012	6	3
2013	4	4
2014	0	0
2015	0	0
2016	0	0
2017	0	0
2018	0	0
2019	1	1
2020	1	1
2021	0	0
2022	0	0
2023	0	0
2024	0	0
2025	1	1
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

No rain expected in the coming days↑
Dry air (45%)↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sun26°

Mon26°

Tue26°

Wed26°

Thu26°

Fri27°

Sat27°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~0.0 expected · usual 6.9

likely 0.0–1.4 · usual 0.0–12

Season

Starts ~16 November
Peak ~18 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid November – mid July

Onset: mid November
Peak: mid January
End: mid July

Critical windows

mid December – early March
37% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −113%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.65). ODLAR's record changes level in 2013 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

6

2002
64
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2012
6
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 25 weeks early
2013
4
season ended 32 weeks early
2019
1
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 24 weeks early
2020
1
season ended 32 weeks early
2025
1
season began 21 weeks late
season ended 13 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson