Mao Komo

Next 7 daysVery high76%

Fire season starts in about 5 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early December – early March
Record year: 20046,798
Trend: −30%/ 10significant · on raw data: +77%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4183	416
2002	6346	1018
2003	5013	1208
2004	6798	1572
2005	6380	1524
2006	5104	1206
2007	6687	1546
2008	5650	1354
2009	4559	1086
2010	4168	946
2011	5642	1309
2012	4871	3315
2013	3851	3851
2014	3954	3954
2015	4114	4114
2016	4650	4650
2017	3375	3375
2018	3643	4687
2019	3116	6249
2020	4034	7951
2021	3521	7094
2022	2854	5674
2023	2998	6086
2024	3396	6526
2025	2912	5800
2026	2328	6968

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

3.1×

Raw data

› 11.8×

usual = 1×

This month: 28
Usual (median): 9.0
Rank: 4 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 11.8× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 3.1×.

Next 7 days

Very high

Full risk view

Very high

Expected detections: ~60.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun37°

Mon36°

Tue37°

Wed37°

Thu37°

Fri38°

Sat39°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Very high

~60 expected · usual 28

Next 3 months

About usual

~4,164 expected · usual 4,255

likely 2,182–5,471 · usual 1,283–7,075

Season

Starts ~14 December
Peak ~4 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid December – late February

Onset: mid December
Peak: early January
End: late February

Critical windows

early December – early March
90% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −30%/10Raw: +77%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 3.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2013 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

5

2004
6,798
peak 1.5× stronger than normal
2006
5,104
season ended 3 weeks late
2022
2,854
season ended 3 weeks late
2024
3,396
season ended 3 weeks late
2026
2,328
season began 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson