East Gojjam

Next 7 daysLow11%

Fire season starts in about 1 week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid November – early February
Record year: 20072,459
Trend: −15%/ 10significant · on raw data: +90%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2265	223
2002	1976	321
2003	1841	432
2004	2426	559
2005	2157	510
2006	2292	546
2007	2459	591
2008	2320	540
2009	2158	502
2010	1811	399
2011	2199	507
2012	1650	1481
2013	1747	1747
2014	1934	1934
2015	1842	1842
2016	2013	2013
2017	1614	1614
2018	1897	3077
2019	961	1888
2020	1521	3046
2021	1689	3266
2022	1106	2185
2023	1881	3779
2024	1958	3891
2025	1648	3403
2026	668	1970

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

1.1×

Raw data

3.6×

usual = 1×

This month: 44
Usual (median): 40
Rank: 12 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 3.6× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 1.1×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~45.8

Fires detected in recent days↑
Dry air (51%)↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun27°

Mon27°

Tue28°

Wed29°

Thu29°

Fri28°

Sat28°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~46 expected · usual 82

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~1,098 expected · usual 1,715

likely 746–1,680 · usual 464–3,246

Season

Starts ~16 November
Peak ~21 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid November – late March

Onset: mid November
Peak: mid December
End: late March

Critical windows

mid November – early February
68% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −15%/10Raw: +90%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 4.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p 0.005): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

5

2016
2,013
season ended 7 weeks early
2019
961
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2022
1,106
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks late
2024
1,958
season ended 3 weeks late
2026
668
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 4 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson