Bench Sheko

Next 7 daysModerate22%

Fire season: about 16 weeks left · 0.1× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 200523,307
Trend: −3%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +89%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	12580	1102
2002	17329	2093
2003	13632	3204
2004	12736	2841
2005	23307	5737
2006	7891	1848
2007	22924	5359
2008	12521	3096
2009	11382	2665
2010	14035	3317
2011	10832	2632
2012	18241	15421
2013	17124	17124
2014	16468	16468
2015	16315	16315
2016	21378	21378
2017	13728	13728
2018	16715	22693
2019	11344	22782
2020	11230	22405
2021	19450	38141
2022	9313	18361
2023	11842	23161
2024	12335	25043
2025	19073	37863
2026	10307	30823

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

1.6×

Raw data

3.2×

usual = 1×

This month: 175
Usual (median): 112
Rank: 11 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 3.2× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 1.6×.

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~180.5

Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
A dry month (192 mm)↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun27°

Mon28°

Tue28°

Wed29°

Thu29°

Fri30°

Sat31°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~180 expected · usual 159

Next 3 months

About usual

~6,944 expected · usual 7,925

likely 1,549–12,007 · usual 784–15,868

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~8 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – early March

Onset: early November
Peak: early February
End: early March

Critical windows

mid December – early March
78% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −3%/10Raw: +89%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.98).

Unusual years

4

2009
11,382
season began 12 weeks early
2020
11,230
season began 15 weeks early
season ended 3 weeks late
2024
12,335
season ended 3 weeks late
2026
10,307
season began 17 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson