Hadiya

Next 7 daysHigh60%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late November – mid February
Record year: 2007421
Trend: −2%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +105%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	262	16
2002	189	14
2003	160	16
2004	154	15
2005	287	49
2006	259	43
2007	421	77
2008	233	33
2009	205	29
2010	233	36
2011	258	41
2012	230	184
2013	239	239
2014	214	214
2015	258	258
2016	88	88
2017	163	163
2018	196	303
2019	227	460
2020	212	449
2021	250	548
2022	175	349
2023	284	572
2024	194	392
2025	286	623
2026	285	810

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 11.1×

Raw data

› 100.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 44
Usual (median): 4.0
Rank: 1 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 100.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 11.1×.

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~16.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sun18°

Mon18°

Tue19°

Wed20°

Thu20°

Fri20°

Sat20°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~16 expected · usual 7.5

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~270 expected · usual 189

likely 79–472 · usual 41–459

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~28 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – early March

Onset: late November
Peak: late December
End: early March

Critical windows

late November – mid February
75% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −2%/10Raw: +105%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 10.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

8

2007
421
1.8× the normal annual activity
2010
233
season began 4 weeks early
2015
258
season began 4 weeks late
2016
88
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks early
2017
163
season began 4 weeks late
2019
227
season began 3 weeks late
2025
286
season began 3 weeks early
2026
285
season began 6 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson