Zone 3

Next 7 daysVery high78%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early February – mid March
Record year: 20252,149
Trend: +24%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +91%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	807	67
2002	963	99
2003	413	53
2004	422	62
2005	489	79
2006	442	69
2007	392	50
2008	814	146
2009	529	94
2010	314	37
2011	472	81
2012	954	933
2013	769	769
2014	334	334
2015	868	868
2016	351	351
2017	702	702
2018	324	449
2019	394	789
2020	705	1401
2021	1162	2252
2022	1815	3536
2023	1154	2302
2024	791	1553
2025	2149	4266
2026	1431	4136

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

1.8×

Raw data

› 6.6×

usual = 1×

This month: 11
Usual (median): 5.8
Rank: 9 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 6.6× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 1.8×.

Next 7 days

Very high

Full risk view

Very high

Expected detections: ~19.8

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun35°

Mon35°

Tue35°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

Sat35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Very high

~20 expected · usual 12

Next 3 months

About usual

~246 expected · usual 207

likely 73–649 · usual 36–469

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~8 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – mid June

Onset: late November
Peak: early March
End: mid June

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early February – mid March
25% of annual activity
mid May – late June
20% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +24%/10Raw: +91%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 19.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.09).

Unusual years

9

2002
963
season began 6 weeks late
2012
954
season began 9 weeks late
2015
868
season began 9 weeks late
2016
351
season ended 12 weeks early
2019
394
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 11 weeks early
2020
705
season ended 12 weeks early
2021
1,162
season ended 10 weeks early
2023
1,154
season began 9 weeks early
2026
1,431
season began 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson