Southern Tigray

Next 7 daysModerate27%

Fire season: about 32 weeks left · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late December – mid March
Record year: 2023131
Trend: −14%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +82%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	32	0
2002	33	0
2003	30	0
2004	29	0
2005	29	0
2006	28	0
2007	31	0
2008	55	4
2009	45	2
2010	28	0
2011	35	1
2012	19	16
2013	25	25
2014	21	21
2015	42	42
2016	16	16
2017	18	18
2018	16	28
2019	23	36
2020	20	41
2021	24	44
2022	11	35
2023	131	266
2024	53	136
2025	31	56
2026	37	166

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

1.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.0
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 9 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~0.9

An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Dry air (37%)↑

Sun27°

Mon28°

Tue29°

Wed29°

Thu30°

Fri30°

Sat30°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~0.9 expected · usual 1.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~9.1 expected · usual 9.6

likely 3.1–21 · usual 0.0–18

Season

Ends ~21 June
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – late June

Onset: early November
Peak: early March
End: late June

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late December – mid March
38% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −14%/10Raw: +82%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 30.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.17).

Unusual years

9

2015
42
season began 8 weeks late
2018
16
season began 10 weeks early
2019
23
season ended 15 weeks early
2020
20
season ended 11 weeks early
2021
24
season ended 9 weeks early
2022
11
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 13 weeks late
2023
131
4.5× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 8 weeks late
2024
53
season began 8 weeks late
2026
37
season began 10 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson