West Harerghe

Next 7 daysHigh43%

Fire season starts in about 3 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – mid March
Record year: 20241,473
Trend: +40%/ 10significant · on raw data: +99%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	370	11
2002	284	7
2003	191	13
2004	256	20
2005	743	102
2006	437	50
2007	1171	170
2008	939	137
2009	207	16
2010	814	123
2011	1047	138
2012	1207	1050
2013	751	751
2014	1157	1157
2015	678	678
2016	269	269
2017	261	261
2018	631	1142
2019	928	1977
2020	1320	2664
2021	1215	2399
2022	256	520
2023	492	874
2024	1473	2862
2025	1415	2814
2026	361	1060

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

3.1×

Raw data

› 10.5×

usual = 1×

This month: 9.5
Usual (median): 3.0
Rank: 5 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 10.5× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 3.1×.

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~14.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (42%)↑

Sun20°

Mon20°

Tue22°

Wed22°

Thu22°

Fri21°

Sat22°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~14 expected · usual 15

Next 3 months

About usual

~505 expected · usual 589

likely 90–1,136 · usual 25–1,944

Season

Starts ~30 November
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – mid March

Onset: late November
Peak: early March
End: mid March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid December – mid March
74% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +40%/10Raw: +99%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 19.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.29).

Unusual years

6

2002
284
season ended 10 weeks late
2003
191
season ended 8 weeks late
2009
207
season ended 14 weeks late
2010
814
season ended 9 weeks early
2018
631
season ended 8 weeks early
2023
492
season began 9 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson