Sheka

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late January

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid January – early April
Record year: 2006114
Trend: −20%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +94%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	42	0
2002	54	1
2003	66	7
2004	56	6
2005	44	3
2006	114	14
2007	46	3
2008	26	0
2009	43	3
2010	35	2
2011	48	4
2012	67	65
2013	33	33
2014	55	55
2015	54	54
2016	71	71
2017	81	81
2018	88	98
2019	33	86
2020	12	15
2021	36	68
2022	25	65
2023	25	56
2024	16	36
2025	45	94
2026	20	54

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Strong wind (1.2 m/s)↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sun24°

Mon24°

Tue25°

Wed24°

Thu24°

Fri25°

Sat25°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~2.5 expected · usual 3.7

likely 0.0–12 · usual 0.0–8.4

Season

Starts ~25 January
Peak ~22 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late January – late March

Onset: late January
Peak: late February
End: late March

Critical windows

mid January – early April
93% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −20%/10Raw: +94%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 16.0× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2019 (p 0.03): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

6

2006
114
2.5× the normal annual activity
2013
33
season ended 3 weeks late
2017
81
season ended 3 weeks early
2018
88
season began 6 weeks early
2020
12
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2024
16
only 0.4× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson