Oromia

Next 7 daysLow6%

Fire season starts in about 5 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late May – late June
Record year: 200268
Trend: −22%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +75%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	16	1
2002	67	8
2003	35	5
2004	24	2
2005	29	2
2006	16	1
2007	22	1
2008	38	5
2009	64	10
2010	12	0
2011	19	1
2012	12	11
2013	9	9
2014	13	13
2015	13	13
2016	3	3
2017	10	10
2018	10	13
2019	4	9
2020	10	27
2021	40	80
2022	20	26
2023	20	47
2024	19	34
2025	58	114
2026	13	33

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

No rain expected in the coming days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (38%)↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sun27°

Mon28°

Tue28°

Wed28°

Thu28°

Fri29°

Sat28°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~4.5 expected · usual 9.4

likely 1.0–20 · usual 0.0–17

Season

Starts ~14 December
Peak ~14 June

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid December – late June

Onset: mid December
Peak: mid June
End: late June

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late May – late June
35% of annual activity
early December – late December
14% of annual activity
late January – early February
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −22%/10Raw: +75%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 8.9× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2010 (p 0.05): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2002
67
season began 7 weeks late
2005
29
season ended 6 weeks early
2009
64
season began 11 weeks late
2012
12
season ended 11 weeks late
2013
9
season began 6 weeks early
2016
3
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2018
10
season ended 6 weeks early
2019
4
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 12 weeks early
2021
40
season ended 10 weeks early
2022
20
season began 11 weeks late
2026
13
season began 8 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson