Zone 4

Next 7 daysVery high67%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early May – early June
Record year: 2025559
Trend: +3%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +50%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	306	30
2002	46	4
2003	47	9
2004	38	12
2005	51	12
2006	88	22
2007	146	43
2008	71	13
2009	149	48
2010	108	29
2011	58	18
2012	43	40
2013	18	18
2014	10	10
2015	21	21
2016	40	40
2017	74	74
2018	41	55
2019	14	22
2020	26	58
2021	71	134
2022	85	168
2023	122	212
2024	102	195
2025	559	1098
2026	200	636

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 43.7×

usual = 1×

This month: 15
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

Very high

Full risk view

Very high

Expected detections: ~6.2

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Fires detected in recent days↑

Sun32°

Mon32°

Tue33°

Wed33°

Thu33°

Fri33°

Sat32°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Very high

~6.2 expected · usual 1.7

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~38 expected · usual 22

likely 6.1–201 · usual 0.0–61

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~24 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – mid July

Onset: late November
Peak: late May
End: mid July

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early May – early June
19% of annual activity
mid February – early March
16% of annual activity
mid April – late April
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +3%/10Raw: +50%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2016 to 9.4× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.44).

Unusual years

6

2001
306
5.2× the normal annual activity
peak 5.6× stronger than normal
2011
58
season ended 10 weeks early
2014
10
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 9 weeks early
2016
40
season ended 26 weeks early
2019
14
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2025
559
9.6× the normal annual activity
peak 7.2× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson