Bale

Next 7 daysLow13%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid January

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early January – late March
Record year: 20084,640
Trend: +1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +90%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1285	54
2002	1207	55
2003	1136	157
2004	957	134
2005	766	99
2006	884	111
2007	2501	453
2008	4640	838
2009	1496	226
2010	1033	143
2011	2404	390
2012	1579	1450
2013	1210	1210
2014	1536	1536
2015	2889	2889
2016	975	975
2017	908	908
2018	794	1148
2019	2066	4112
2020	924	1714
2021	1999	3809
2022	1174	2294
2023	873	1766
2024	1799	3628
2025	2084	4141
2026	1036	3328

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 2.5
Rank: 19 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~1.1

An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (38%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun27°

Mon28°

Tue30°

Wed30°

Thu30°

Fri30°

Sat31°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~1.1 expected · usual 2.3

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~163 expected · usual 279

likely 1.0–534 · usual 34–675

Season

Starts ~11 January
Peak ~22 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid January – late March

Onset: mid January
Peak: late February
End: late March

Critical windows

early January – late March
84% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +1%/10Raw: +90%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 9.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.53).

Unusual years

17

2001
1,285
season ended 15 weeks late
2002
1,207
season ended 16 weeks late
2004
957
season began 3 weeks late
2005
766
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 12 weeks late
2006
884
season ended 13 weeks late
2007
2,501
season began 4 weeks early
2008
4,640
3.8× the normal annual activity
peak 3.8× stronger than normal
2010
1,033
season began 7 weeks early
2013
1,210
season began 3 weeks early
2015
2,889
2.4× the normal annual activity
peak 3.3× stronger than normal
2016
975
season ended 20 weeks late
2018
794
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 22 weeks late
2020
924
season began 4 weeks early
2023
873
season ended 22 weeks late
2024
1,799
season ended 19 weeks late
2025
2,084
season ended 18 weeks late
2026
1,036
season ended 22 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson