Qebena Special Woreda

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season starts in about 3 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early February – mid April
Record year: 200518
Trend: −2%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +64%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	4	0
2003	3	0
2004	3	0
2005	18	2
2006	3	0
2007	3	0
2008	3	0
2009	3	0
2010	3	0
2011	3	0
2012	2	2
2013	0	0
2014	2	2
2015	1	1
2016	3	3
2017	5	5
2018	1	2
2019	2	4
2020	0	2
2021	4	9
2022	4	4
2023	11	17
2024	12	28
2025	14	31
2026	3	17

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun18°

Mon18°

Tue19°

Wed20°

Thu20°

Fri20°

Sat20°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.7 expected · usual 0.8

likely 0.0–2.2 · usual 0.0–2.1

Season

Starts ~30 November
Peak ~29 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – early April

Onset: late November
Peak: late March
End: early April

Critical windows

early February – mid April
71% of annual activity
late November – early December
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −2%/10Raw: +64%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 29.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.13).

Unusual years

13

2005
18
6.1× the normal annual activity
peak 8.6× stronger than normal
season began 11 weeks late
2012
2
season began 11 weeks late
2014
2
season ended 15 weeks early
2015
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 19 weeks early
2016
3
season ended 7 weeks early
2017
5
season ended 9 weeks early
2018
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 18 weeks early
2019
2
season began 12 weeks late
2021
4
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season began 14 weeks late
2023
11
3.7× the normal annual activity
peak 9.0× stronger than normal
season began 16 weeks late
2024
12
4.0× the normal annual activity
peak 11× stronger than normal
season began 15 weeks late
2025
14
4.7× the normal annual activity
peak 10× stronger than normal
season began 11 weeks late
2026
3
season began 16 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson