West Gojjam

Next 7 daysLow6%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late November – mid February
Record year: 20073,814
Trend: −23%/ 10significant · on raw data: +81%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2177	266
2002	3322	565
2003	2431	560
2004	3047	707
2005	3019	686
2006	2881	648
2007	3814	879
2008	2919	689
2009	2329	535
2010	2105	491
2011	2217	506
2012	2011	1748
2013	2181	2181
2014	1857	1857
2015	2172	2172
2016	2481	2481
2017	1734	1734
2018	2473	3863
2019	1303	2554
2020	1862	3757
2021	1890	3790
2022	1182	2365
2023	1743	3397
2024	1743	3461
2025	2052	4077
2026	968	2774

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.4×

Raw data

› 10.7×

usual = 1×

This month: 109
Usual (median): 45
Rank: 4 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 10.7× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 2.4×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~50.4

Fires detected in recent days↑
Rain expected (19 mm)↓

Sun20°

Mon19°

Tue20°

Wed19°

Thu20°

Fri20°

Sat20°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~50 expected · usual 83

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~1,312 expected · usual 2,005

likely 952–1,802 · usual 678–3,521

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~28 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – late March

Onset: late November
Peak: late December
End: late March

Critical windows

late November – mid February
68% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −23%/10Raw: +81%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2010 (p 0.005): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

9

2001
2,177
season began 3 weeks late
2007
3,814
1.8× the normal annual activity
2010
2,105
season began 3 weeks early
2017
1,734
season ended 3 weeks early
2019
1,303
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
2022
1,182
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks late
2023
1,743
season began 3 weeks late
2024
1,743
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2026
968
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson