Gedeo

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: about 19 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late December – late March
Record year: 20127
Trend: −12%/ 10significant · on raw data: +50%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2	0
2002	2	0
2003	2	0
2004	2	0
2005	2	0
2006	2	0
2007	2	0
2008	2	0
2009	2	0
2010	2	0
2011	2	0
2012	7	7
2013	2	2
2014	0	0
2015	1	1
2016	6	6
2017	5	5
2018	1	7
2019	0	5
2020	2	5
2021	2	4
2022	1	1
2023	2	6
2024	0	1
2025	0	3
2026	1	2

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

No rain expected in the coming days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun26°

Mon27°

Tue27°

Wed29°

Thu28°

Fri28°

Sat29°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.5 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–1.3 · usual 0.0–0.7

Season

Ends ~22 March
Peak ~11 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early October – late March

Onset: early October
Peak: mid January
End: late March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late December – late March
72% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −12%/10Raw: +50%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 0.0× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2018 (p 0.05): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2012
7
3.6× the normal annual activity
peak 10× stronger than normal
season began 10 weeks late
2013
2
season began 9 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks early
2015
1
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early
2016
6
3.0× the normal annual activity
peak 10× stronger than normal
season ended 3 weeks early
2017
5
2.5× the normal annual activity
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
2018
1
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 28 weeks late
season ended 11 weeks late
2020
2
season ended 10 weeks early
2021
2
season ended 11 weeks early
2022
1
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 13 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks early
2023
2
season ended 8 weeks early
2026
1
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 11 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson