Zone 1

Next 7 daysExtreme90%

Fire season: about 35 weeks left · 2.7× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid May – early July
Record year: 20251,215
Trend: +8%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +90%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	682	64
2002	642	81
2003	599	109
2004	363	39
2005	319	32
2006	550	102
2007	473	83
2008	651	131
2009	394	57
2010	403	55
2011	643	143
2012	967	946
2013	938	938
2014	791	791
2015	909	909
2016	546	546
2017	531	531
2018	421	801
2019	426	881
2020	271	540
2021	415	730
2022	983	1981
2023	883	1633
2024	490	1022
2025	1215	2423
2026	832	2362

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 7.9×

Raw data

› 27.4×

usual = 1×

This month: 103
Usual (median): 13
Rank: 1 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 27.4× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 7.9×.

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~32.5

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed36°

Thu36°

Fri35°

Sat35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~32 expected · usual 8.9

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~254 expected · usual 156

likely 78–490 · usual 47–261

Season

Ends ~12 July
Peak ~7 June

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – mid July

Onset: early November
Peak: early June
End: mid July

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid May – early July
23% of annual activity
late March – mid April
8% of annual activity
early March – early March
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +8%/10Raw: +90%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 12.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.53).

Unusual years

11

2003
599
season began 5 weeks late
2009
394
season began 4 weeks early
2011
643
season began 6 weeks early
2012
967
season began 3 weeks early
2013
938
season began 4 weeks early
2014
791
season began 8 weeks late
2015
909
season began 3 weeks early
2016
546
season ended 7 weeks early
2022
983
season began 3 weeks late
2025
1,215
season began 3 weeks early
2026
832
season began 7 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson