Western Tigray

Next 7 daysLow13%

Peak fire period now · 0.1× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – mid December
Record year: 200310,356
Trend: −20%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +105%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	9629	774
2002	8175	1270
2003	10356	2279
2004	7189	1456
2005	7306	1543
2006	5726	1132
2007	8008	1719
2008	5759	1199
2009	5236	971
2010	2901	450
2011	3691	617
2012	4892	4740
2013	5692	5692
2014	3222	3222
2015	3029	3029
2016	3287	3287
2017	4248	4248
2018	5075	8453
2019	5283	10704
2020	5990	11784
2021	5092	10181
2022	5822	11576
2023	7073	14015
2024	6929	13568
2025	4805	9560
2026	1916	5604

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

1.1×

Raw data

3.4×

usual = 1×

This month: 392
Usual (median): 344
Rank: 13 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 3.4× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 1.1×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~178.4

Fires detected in recent days↑
Dry air (28%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun34°

Mon35°

Tue35°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri36°

Sat36°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~178 expected · usual 231

Next 3 months

About usual

~2,563 expected · usual 2,815

likely 1,100–3,808 · usual 876–5,251

Season

Ends ~19 April
Peak ~30 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – mid April

Onset: early November
Peak: late November
End: mid April

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early November – mid December
30% of annual activity
early March – mid April
22% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −20%/10Raw: +105%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 6.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2009 (p 0.010): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

5

2001
9,629
peak 2.2× stronger than normal
2003
10,356
peak 2.1× stronger than normal
2008
5,759
season ended 3 weeks early
2010
2,901
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2026
1,916
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson