Gofa

Next 7 daysHigh44%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early December – early March
Record year: 20073,793
Trend: −18%/ 10significant · on raw data: +90%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2727	134
2002	2178	226
2003	2183	398
2004	2008	331
2005	3545	621
2006	1667	281
2007	3793	680
2008	2596	445
2009	1381	219
2010	2059	375
2011	2195	357
2012	2606	1911
2013	2316	2316
2014	2195	2195
2015	2180	2180
2016	2178	2178
2017	1758	1758
2018	2093	2814
2019	1832	3589
2020	1848	3706
2021	2366	4712
2022	1043	2133
2023	1360	2754
2024	1713	3400
2025	1792	3670
2026	1192	3525

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

3.0×

Raw data

› 12.1×

usual = 1×

This month: 62
Usual (median): 21
Rank: 7 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 12.1× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 3.0×.

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~74.6

Fires detected in recent days↑
Dry air (46%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun30°

Mon30°

Tue32°

Wed31°

Thu32°

Fri33°

Sat34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~75 expected · usual 46

Next 3 months

About usual

~1,353 expected · usual 1,688

likely 342–2,697 · usual 82–3,668

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~1 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – early March

Onset: late November
Peak: early February
End: early March

Critical windows

early December – early March
80% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −18%/10Raw: +90%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.08).

Unusual years

3

2007
3,793
1.7× the normal annual activity
peak 1.8× stronger than normal
2022
1,043
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 13 weeks early
2026
1,192
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 22 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson