North Shewa (Oromia Region)

Next 7 daysHigh43%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid January

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late January – mid April
Record year: 20091,038
Trend: −17%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +107%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	901	72
2002	747	54
2003	622	81
2004	726	108
2005	840	160
2006	547	61
2007	507	67
2008	988	179
2009	1038	213
2010	477	44
2011	489	63
2012	446	428
2013	687	687
2014	605	605
2015	460	460
2016	296	296
2017	487	487
2018	465	572
2019	366	681
2020	429	837
2021	512	984
2022	496	984
2023	607	1223
2024	677	1329
2025	681	1310
2026	340	1095

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.2×

Raw data

› 11.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 6.5
Usual (median): 3.0
Rank: 5 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 11.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 2.2×.

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~4.0

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun24°

Mon25°

Tue26°

Wed26°

Thu26°

Fri26°

Sat26°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~4.0 expected · usual 2.2

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~119 expected · usual 85

likely 53–191 · usual 24–153

Season

Starts ~11 January
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid January – early May

Onset: mid January
Peak: early March
End: early May

Critical windows

late January – mid April
67% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −17%/10Raw: +107%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2010 (p 0.01): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

7

2004
726
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2005
840
season began 3 weeks late
2008
988
peak 2.2× stronger than normal
2009
1,038
1.9× the normal annual activity
2016
296
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 4 weeks early
2022
496
season began 3 weeks late
2026
340
season ended 4 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson