North Wollo Zone

Next 7 daysLow9%

Fire season starts in about 4 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid February – late April
Record year: 2009106
Trend: −21%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +106%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	44	1
2002	35	1
2003	41	2
2004	75	7
2005	46	3
2006	32	1
2007	50	4
2008	67	6
2009	106	12
2010	88	11
2011	26	0
2012	27	25
2013	48	48
2014	64	64
2015	61	61
2016	14	14
2017	20	20
2018	41	70
2019	42	76
2020	20	38
2021	39	97
2022	27	58
2023	33	80
2024	21	46
2025	41	101
2026	16	45

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

3.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 2.0
Usual (median): 0.7
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.6

An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun23°

Mon24°

Tue25°

Wed25°

Thu25°

Fri24°

Sat25°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.6 expected · usual 0.5

Next 3 months

About usual

~13 expected · usual 12

likely 3.8–32 · usual 0.0–34

Season

Starts ~7 December
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early December – late May

Onset: early December
Peak: early March
End: late May

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid February – late April
44% of annual activity
early May – mid May
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −21%/10Raw: +106%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 13.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2016 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

4

2012
27
season ended 11 weeks early
2016
14
season ended 10 weeks late
2021
39
season ended 6 weeks early
2023
33
season ended 8 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson