Basketo Zone

Next 7 daysLow5%

Fire season: about 15 weeks left · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late November – late February
Record year: 2005448
Trend: −23%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +90%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	241	15
2002	322	41
2003	310	72
2004	341	85
2005	448	119
2006	75	7
2007	419	110
2008	267	57
2009	81	8
2010	243	53
2011	195	38
2012	388	291
2013	234	234
2014	283	283
2015	210	210
2016	280	280
2017	183	183
2018	212	333
2019	105	258
2020	220	508
2021	289	570
2022	82	163
2023	120	232
2024	228	462
2025	256	541
2026	263	727

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

Raw data

1.3×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 3.6
Rank: 22 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 1.3× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.00×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~1.3

An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (46%)↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun30°

Mon30°

Tue32°

Wed31°

Thu32°

Fri33°

Sat34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~1.3 expected · usual 5.3

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~92 expected · usual 193

likely 1.0–244 · usual 20–491

Season

Ends ~22 February
Peak ~21 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – late February

Onset: early November
Peak: mid December
End: late February

Critical windows

late November – late February
75% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −23%/10Raw: +90%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.24).

Unusual years

9

2006
75
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2007
419
season ended 3 weeks late
2009
81
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2017
183
season ended 4 weeks early
2019
105
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2022
82
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2023
120
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2024
228
season ended 3 weeks late
2026
263
season began 17 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson