Horo Guduru

Next 7 daysLow19%

Fire season starts in about 4 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 20075,647
Trend: −5%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +93%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4352	433
2002	4522	666
2003	3869	861
2004	4328	960
2005	5029	1108
2006	4724	1082
2007	5647	1319
2008	5287	1188
2009	4231	965
2010	4061	916
2011	5327	1252
2012	3883	3526
2013	4238	4238
2014	3941	3941
2015	4820	4820
2016	4010	4010
2017	4051	4051
2018	4116	5973
2019	2534	5217
2020	3038	5719
2021	4777	9531
2022	3237	6269
2023	5054	9975
2024	4632	8843
2025	4865	9691
2026	2673	7838

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 5.4×

Raw data

› 17.3×

usual = 1×

This month: 147
Usual (median): 28
Rank: 1 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 17.3× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 5.4×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~69.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Rain expected (14 mm)↓

Sun21°

Mon21°

Tue22°

Wed21°

Thu21°

Fri22°

Sat22°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~69 expected · usual 67

Next 3 months

About usual

~2,696 expected · usual 2,680

likely 1,450–3,738 · usual 1,174–4,141

Season

Starts ~7 December
Peak ~22 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early December – late March

Onset: early December
Peak: late February
End: late March

Critical windows

mid December – early March
68% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −5%/10Raw: +93%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.40).

Unusual years

6

2005
5,029
peak 1.7× stronger than normal
2011
5,327
season began 3 weeks early
2015
4,820
season began 5 weeks early
2016
4,010
season began 4 weeks early
2019
2,534
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
2026
2,673
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson