Fafan

Next 7 daysLow8%

Fire season: about 18 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid January – mid March
Record year: 2016106
Trend: +13%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +79%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	18	2
2002	17	1
2003	14	0
2004	21	3
2005	13	0
2006	14	1
2007	29	3
2008	23	3
2009	12	0
2010	21	3
2011	24	2
2012	8	7
2013	2	2
2014	7	7
2015	1	1
2016	106	106
2017	3	3
2018	11	22
2019	17	27
2020	24	47
2021	45	85
2022	8	23
2023	19	42
2024	38	75
2025	42	83
2026	9	34

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

Dry air (29%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun28°

Mon29°

Tue29°

Wed28°

Thu29°

Fri30°

Sat30°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~5.1 expected · usual 9.0

likely 1.0–11 · usual 0.0–20

Season

Ends ~15 March
Peak ~6 September

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late August – mid March

Onset: late August
Peak: early September
End: mid March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid January – mid March
37% of annual activity
late August – early September
18% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +13%/10Raw: +79%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2016 to 22.0× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.53).

Unusual years

7

2016
106
6.2× the normal annual activity
peak 23× stronger than normal
season ended 24 weeks early
2017
3
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 8 weeks early
2018
11
season ended 6 weeks early
2022
8
season ended 9 weeks late
2023
19
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 19 weeks early
2025
42
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
2026
9
season ended 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson