Wolayita

Next 7 daysLow17%

Fire season: about 15 weeks left · 0.2× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid November – early February
Record year: 2001752
Trend: −30%/ 10significant · on raw data: +77%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	752	56
2002	651	110
2003	404	75
2004	509	99
2005	480	97
2006	395	78
2007	726	171
2008	504	105
2009	438	95
2010	524	122
2011	499	99
2012	644	540
2013	569	569
2014	493	493
2015	259	259
2016	275	275
2017	142	142
2018	400	616
2019	299	636
2020	385	746
2021	396	781
2022	156	310
2023	214	392
2024	366	751
2025	535	1092
2026	287	780

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.63×

Raw data

1.7×

usual = 1×

This month: 10
Usual (median): 16
Rank: 17 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 1.7× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.63×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~17.8

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun25°

Mon25°

Tue26°

Wed25°

Thu25°

Fri26°

Sat26°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~18 expected · usual 21

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~313 expected · usual 401

likely 98–700 · usual 50–970

Season

Ends ~22 February
Peak ~21 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – late February

Onset: early November
Peak: mid December
End: late February

Critical windows

mid November – early February
72% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −30%/10Raw: +77%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2015 (p 0.003): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

6

2001
752
1.7× the normal annual activity
2010
524
season ended 3 weeks early
2017
142
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2022
156
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2023
214
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2026
287
season began 7 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson