Jarar

Next 7 daysHigh53%

Fire season: about 18 weeks left · 2.7× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late December – early March
Record year: 2016142
Trend: −5%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +110%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	68	2
2002	74	3
2003	44	1
2004	39	0
2005	47	2
2006	38	0
2007	61	7
2008	38	0
2009	43	0
2010	55	3
2011	52	4
2012	14	10
2013	59	59
2014	21	21
2015	36	36
2016	142	142
2017	44	44
2018	51	86
2019	49	105
2020	41	74
2021	43	101
2022	42	73
2023	32	51
2024	68	163
2025	55	116
2026	47	139

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.81×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.8
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~1.5

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (32%)↑

Sun32°

Mon32°

Tue32°

Wed32°

Thu32°

Fri33°

Sat32°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~1.5 expected · usual 0.6

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~27 expected · usual 18

likely 17–49 · usual 7.0–35

Season

Ends ~15 March
Peak ~6 September

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early August – mid March

Onset: early August
Peak: early September
End: mid March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late December – early March
39% of annual activity
late August – early September
12% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −5%/10Raw: +110%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 30.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

8

2002
74
1.7× the normal annual activity
season ended 7 weeks late
2012
14
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 10 weeks late
2013
59
season began 9 weeks early
2014
21
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2016
142
3.2× the normal annual activity
peak 11× stronger than normal
season ended 14 weeks early
2018
51
season ended 6 weeks early
2023
32
season ended 4 weeks early
2025
55
season began 15 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson