Saskatchewan (3/5)

Next 7 daysLow20%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 20153,554
Trend: −21%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +51%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1443	259
2002	2929	394
2003	1018	424
2004	565	163
2005	1812	826
2006	1019	391
2007	1072	437
2008	1180	483
2009	1022	365
2010	936	364
2011	797	288
2012	584	580
2013	946	946
2014	1166	1166
2015	3554	3554
2016	1205	1205
2017	1345	1345
2018	2510	5090
2019	587	1098
2020	851	1708
2021	1007	2000
2022	305	611
2023	484	955
2024	438	907
2025	2286	4490
2026	988	3280

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.45×

Raw data

1.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 31
Usual (median): 68
Rank: 19 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 1.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.45×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~31.0

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

Right now

early November

This week5.7

This week is more active than 36% of past years at this time

Year to date988

#14 of 26 yearsNormal: 994

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~31 expected · usual 14

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~14 expected · usual 41

likely 1.2–98 · usual 0.0–68

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – late October

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
41% of annual activity
early October – late October
16% of annual activity
late June – early July
12% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −21%/10Raw: +51%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 4.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.24).

Unusual years

12

2002
2,929
2.9× the normal annual activity
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season ended 15 weeks early
2004
565
season ended 3 weeks late
2009
1,022
season ended 3 weeks late
2012
584
season began 3 weeks early
2015
3,554
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 4.4× stronger than normal
2018
2,510
2.5× the normal annual activity
peak 5.7× stronger than normal
2019
587
season ended 16 weeks early
2022
305
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2023
484
season ended 3 weeks late
2024
438
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2025
2,286
peak 4.9× stronger than normal
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early
2026
988
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early

Districts and provinces

189

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Saskatchewan (3/5)

Next 7 daysLow20%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 20153,554
Trend: −21%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +51%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1443	259
2002	2929	394
2003	1018	424
2004	565	163
2005	1812	826
2006	1019	391
2007	1072	437
2008	1180	483
2009	1022	365
2010	936	364
2011	797	288
2012	584	580
2013	946	946
2014	1166	1166
2015	3554	3554
2016	1205	1205
2017	1345	1345
2018	2510	5090
2019	587	1098
2020	851	1708
2021	1007	2000
2022	305	611
2023	484	955
2024	438	907
2025	2286	4490
2026	988	3280

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.45×

Raw data

1.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 31
Usual (median): 68
Rank: 19 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 1.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.45×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~31.0

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

Right now

early November

This week5.7

This week is more active than 36% of past years at this time

Year to date988

#14 of 26 yearsNormal: 994

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~31 expected · usual 14

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~14 expected · usual 41

likely 1.2–98 · usual 0.0–68

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – late October

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
41% of annual activity
early October – late October
16% of annual activity
late June – early July
12% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −21%/10Raw: +51%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 4.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.24).

Unusual years

12

2002
2,929
2.9× the normal annual activity
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season ended 15 weeks early
2004
565
season ended 3 weeks late
2009
1,022
season ended 3 weeks late
2012
584
season began 3 weeks early
2015
3,554
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 4.4× stronger than normal
2018
2,510
2.5× the normal annual activity
peak 5.7× stronger than normal
2019
587
season ended 16 weeks early
2022
305
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2023
484
season ended 3 weeks late
2024
438
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2025
2,286
peak 4.9× stronger than normal
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early
2026
988
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early

Districts and provinces

189

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson