Wood Creek No. 281

Next 7 daysLow19%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 201745
Trend: −34%/ 10significant · on raw data: +33%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	12	0
2002	19	2
2003	38	15
2004	9	3
2005	27	14
2006	31	14
2007	37	18
2008	13	6
2009	24	10
2010	9	2
2011	24	6
2012	9	9
2013	22	22
2014	42	42
2015	42	42
2016	18	18
2017	45	45
2018	5	14
2019	9	14
2020	15	26
2021	15	25
2022	4	7
2023	5	16
2024	5	13
2025	7	9
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 20 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.5

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun8°

Mon10°

Tue8°

Wed4°

Thu2°

Fri1°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.5 expected · usual 0.5

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~0.0 expected · usual 1.7

likely 0.0–3.8 · usual 0.0–1.2

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – late October

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
50% of annual activity
late September – early November
37% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −34%/10Raw: +33%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 2.7× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record changes level in 2018 (p 0.02): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

10

2002
19
season ended 18 weeks early
2003
38
season ended 3 weeks early
2004
9
season began 3 weeks early
2009
24
season ended 3 weeks late
2016
18
season ended 3 weeks late
2019
9
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 22 weeks early
2022
4
season began 3 weeks late
2023
5
season began 24 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks late
2024
5
season began 24 weeks late
2025
7
season began 5 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson