Leask No. 464

Next 7 daysExtreme80%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 201547
Trend: −36%/ 10significant · on raw data: +48%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	29	6
2002	17	2
2003	24	10
2004	6	0
2005	35	20
2006	25	11
2007	27	14
2008	27	13
2009	33	18
2010	23	11
2011	44	25
2012	26	26
2013	15	15
2014	17	17
2015	47	47
2016	14	14
2017	26	26
2018	14	24
2019	11	19
2020	7	12
2021	7	20
2022	4	21
2023	15	32
2024	17	30
2025	15	28
2026	16	58

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 18 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~4.1

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun8°

Mon8°

Tue8°

Wed3°

Thu4°

Fri2°

Sat−1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~4.1 expected · usual 0.7

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.1 expected · usual 1.1

likely 0.0–3.9 · usual 0.0–2.4

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early November

Onset: mid April
Peak: early May
End: early November

Critical windows

mid April – late May
62% of annual activity
mid October – early November
13% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −36%/10Raw: +48%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2011 to 2.3× its earlier level (p 0.006). ODLAR's record changes level in 2016 (p 0.02): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

9

2003
24
season began 6 weeks early
2005
35
season ended 9 weeks early
2009
33
season ended 15 weeks early
2016
14
season ended 11 weeks early
2018
14
season began 6 weeks late
2020
7
season ended 23 weeks early
2022
4
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 26 weeks late
2023
15
season began 20 weeks late
2024
17
season ended 11 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson