Bratt's Lake No. 129

Next 7 daysLow17%

Fire season: last week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 200560
Trend: −41%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	12	1
2002	12	2
2003	10	4
2004	12	8
2005	60	37
2006	23	14
2007	10	3
2008	12	5
2009	12	4
2010	11	6
2011	8	6
2012	4	4
2013	5	5
2014	30	30
2015	20	20
2016	32	32
2017	20	20
2018	12	22
2019	1	3
2020	6	13
2021	2	4
2022	1	5
2023	4	7
2024	2	3
2025	0	0
2026	12	19

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
A dry month (15 mm)↑

Sun10°

Mon12°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.6 expected · usual 0.8

likely 0.0–2.5 · usual 0.0–1.5

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – early November

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
54% of annual activity
mid October – mid November
24% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −41%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.77). ODLAR's record changes level in 2019 (p 0.008): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

7

2002
12
season ended 18 weeks early
2005
60
peak 4.6× stronger than normal
2016
32
peak 3.5× stronger than normal
2021
2
season ended 24 weeks early
2023
4
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks early
2024
2
season began 24 weeks late
2026
12
season began 24 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson