Pense No. 160

Next 7 daysModerate22%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid September – early November
Record year: 200523
Trend: −8%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +47%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	11	2
2002	5	0
2003	5	2
2004	4	1
2005	23	13
2006	5	1
2007	10	4
2008	4	0
2009	4	1
2010	4	1
2011	4	1
2012	1	1
2013	7	7
2014	7	7
2015	9	9
2016	14	14
2017	13	13
2018	5	9
2019	1	3
2020	8	13
2021	4	7
2022	4	6
2023	0	1
2024	4	4
2025	4	12
2026	8	44

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 6.4×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.9
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 6 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~0.6

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
A dry month (16 mm)↑

Sun10°

Mon12°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~0.6 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.2 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.8 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~17 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – late October

Onset: late April
Peak: mid May
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid September – early November
35% of annual activity
early May – late May
27% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −8%/10Raw: +47%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 3.6× its earlier level (p 0.01). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.13).

Unusual years

11

2001
11
2.4× the normal annual activity
2005
23
4.9× the normal annual activity
peak 5.2× stronger than normal
2007
10
2.1× the normal annual activity
2012
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 20 weeks late
2016
14
3.0× the normal annual activity
season ended 7 weeks early
2017
13
2.8× the normal annual activity
peak 4.5× stronger than normal
season ended 22 weeks early
2018
5
season ended 15 weeks early
2019
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 22 weeks late
2024
4
season began 19 weeks late
2025
4
season began 14 weeks late
2026
8
season began 9 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson