Sturgeon Lake 101

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – late May
Record year: 200520
Trend: −1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +56%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7	1
2002	10	3
2003	2	0
2004	1	0
2005	20	11
2006	3	1
2007	2	0
2008	3	1
2009	2	1
2010	6	3
2011	1	0
2012	2	2
2013	3	3
2014	1	1
2015	6	6
2016	10	10
2017	1	1
2018	6	11
2019	1	5
2020	5	6
2021	3	3
2022	0	1
2023	15	39
2024	3	6
2025	8	13
2026	0	1

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 11 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

This year is more active than normal↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
A dry month (20 mm)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun8°

Mon7°

Tue7°

Wed2°

Thu4°

Fri2°

Sat−1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.0 · usual 0.0–0.0

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – mid May

Onset: mid April
Peak: early May
End: mid May

Critical windows

late March – late May
91% of annual activity
late October – early November
4% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −1%/10Raw: +56%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2015 to 4.8× its earlier level (p 0.03). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

12

2001
7
season ended 19 weeks late
2003
2
season ended 21 weeks late
2005
20
6.7× the normal annual activity
peak 9.0× stronger than normal
2007
2
season ended 22 weeks late
2008
3
season ended 21 weeks late
2011
1
season ended 22 weeks late
2016
10
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
2017
1
season ended 6 weeks early
2020
5
season ended 24 weeks late
2021
3
season ended 19 weeks late
2023
15
peak 7.5× stronger than normal
2024
3
season ended 20 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson