Muskowekwan 85

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – late May
Record year: 201918
Trend: −35%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	13	6
2002	3	0
2003	2	1
2004	12	7
2005	6	2
2006	2	1
2007	10	8
2008	15	7
2009	6	4
2010	2	1
2011	2	0
2012	3	3
2013	10	10
2014	6	6
2015	3	3
2016	4	4
2017	3	3
2018	5	13
2019	18	29
2020	1	2
2021	9	16
2022	0	0
2023	1	2
2024	2	4
2025	0	0
2026	11	35

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 10 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

A dry month (16 mm)↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu1°

Fri2°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.1 · usual 0.0–0.0

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – mid May

Onset: early April
Peak: mid April
End: mid May

Critical windows

late March – late May
95% of annual activity
mid September – early October
2% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −35%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.92). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

10

2003
2
season ended 21 weeks late
2006
2
season ended 9 weeks late
2010
2
season ended 13 weeks late
2011
2
season ended 19 weeks late
2012
3
season ended 6 weeks early
2014
6
season ended 21 weeks late
2019
18
5.5× the normal annual activity
2020
1
season began 4 weeks late
2021
9
season ended 19 weeks late
2026
11
season began 5 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson