Emerald No. 277

Next 7 daysModerate39%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early May

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 202190
Trend: −14%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +61%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	55	10
2002	44	9
2003	47	25
2004	17	9
2005	75	43
2006	49	27
2007	67	36
2008	49	28
2009	69	35
2010	79	41
2011	30	13
2012	58	58
2013	66	66
2014	53	53
2015	66	66
2016	15	15
2017	81	81
2018	43	76
2019	44	69
2020	66	125
2021	90	174
2022	5	8
2023	17	29
2024	22	44
2025	7	20
2026	7	30

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

3.3×

usual = 1×

This month: 2.0
Usual (median): 0.6
Rank: 9 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~1.1

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun7°

Mon8°

Tue7°

Wed4°

Thu1°

Fri1°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~1.1 expected · usual 0.6

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.5 expected · usual 1.3

likely 0.0–3.1 · usual 0.0–1.1

Season

Starts ~3 May
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early May – late October

Onset: early May
Peak: early May
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
47% of annual activity
mid September – early November
37% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −14%/10Raw: +61%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.07). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.24).

Unusual years

9

2002
44
season ended 16 weeks early
2004
17
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 10 weeks early
2006
49
season ended 5 weeks early
2009
69
season ended 4 weeks late
2016
15
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 12 weeks early
2018
43
season began 3 weeks late
2019
44
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 21 weeks early
2023
17
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 15 weeks late
2024
22
season began 23 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson