Elmsthorpe No. 100

Next 7 daysLow10%

Fire season: about 1 week left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late April – early June
Record year: 20149
Trend: −29%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +23%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	6	1
2002	2	1
2003	2	1
2004	2	0
2005	6	3
2006	5	3
2007	2	1
2008	2	0
2009	2	0
2010	2	0
2011	2	0
2012	0	0
2013	1	1
2014	9	9
2015	7	7
2016	5	5
2017	0	0
2018	1	3
2019	2	2
2020	3	5
2021	0	1
2022	0	2
2023	0	0
2024	2	4
2025	8	16
2026	0	7

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
A dry month (16 mm)↑

Sun10°

Mon12°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.4

likely 0.0–1.5 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Ends ~16 November
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early May – mid November

Onset: early May
Peak: early May
End: mid November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late April – early June
60% of annual activity
early November – late November
17% of annual activity
late September – early October
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −29%/10Raw: +23%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.06). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.65).

Unusual years

11

2005
6
peak 5.7× stronger than normal
2006
5
season began 3 weeks late
2013
1
season ended 29 weeks early
2014
9
5.0× the normal annual activity
peak 9.9× stronger than normal
season ended 23 weeks early
2015
7
peak 8.4× stronger than normal
season ended 13 weeks early
2016
5
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season began 28 weeks late
2018
1
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 32 weeks early
2019
2
season began 29 weeks late
2020
3
season ended 27 weeks early
2024
2
season began 27 weeks late
2025
8
4.5× the normal annual activity
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 24 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson