Mount Hope No. 279

Next 7 daysModerate39%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 2021126
Trend: −30%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +46%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	45	7
2002	67	16
2003	74	36
2004	10	2
2005	103	45
2006	45	18
2007	104	46
2008	109	54
2009	81	34
2010	79	40
2011	66	29
2012	56	56
2013	103	103
2014	66	66
2015	113	113
2016	53	53
2017	88	88
2018	79	144
2019	31	56
2020	47	109
2021	126	225
2022	12	25
2023	7	17
2024	17	35
2025	7	13
2026	2	3

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

Raw data

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 2.0
Rank: 22 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~0.7

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~0.7 expected · usual 0.7

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~0.3 expected · usual 2.0

likely 0.0–4.6 · usual 0.0–2.5

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – late October

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
57% of annual activity
late September – early November
34% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −30%/10Raw: +46%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.08). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.19).

Unusual years

7

2002
67
season ended 18 weeks early
2004
10
only 0.1× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks late
2006
45
season ended 3 weeks early
2009
81
season ended 3 weeks late
2019
31
season ended 23 weeks early
2022
12
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 23 weeks late
2024
17
only 0.3× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson