North Qu'Appelle No. 187

Next 7 daysLow14%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid September – early November
Record year: 202128
Trend: −12%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +45%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	13	2
2002	13	4
2003	21	14
2004	5	3
2005	20	8
2006	6	5
2007	16	10
2008	17	10
2009	8	4
2010	8	3
2011	4	0
2012	5	5
2013	16	16
2014	9	9
2015	25	25
2016	4	4
2017	16	16
2018	8	14
2019	4	9
2020	20	33
2021	28	61
2022	6	10
2023	2	8
2024	10	17
2025	10	18
2026	1	8

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.6
Rank: 19 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
A dry month (14 mm)↑

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu1°

Fri2°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.4

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.6

likely 0.0–1.8 · usual 0.0–0.9

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~4 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – early November

Onset: late April
Peak: early October
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid September – early November
58% of annual activity
late April – late May
26% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −12%/10Raw: +45%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 3.3× its earlier level (p 0.01). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.98).

Unusual years

14

2002
13
season ended 16 weeks early
2003
21
season began 14 weeks late
2004
5
season ended 3 weeks late
2005
20
season ended 4 weeks late
2007
16
season began 5 weeks late
2009
8
season ended 3 weeks late
2013
16
season began 3 weeks late
2019
4
season ended 23 weeks early
2020
20
season began 3 weeks late
2021
28
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2022
6
season began 26 weeks late
2023
2
season ended 25 weeks early
2024
10
season began 6 weeks early
2025
10
season began 17 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson