Poorman 88

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – mid May
Record year: 201371
Trend: −26%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	8	2
2002	10	3
2003	1	0
2004	14	8
2005	2	0
2006	1	1
2007	9	6
2008	62	20
2009	8	5
2010	5	2
2011	1	0
2012	29	29
2013	71	71
2014	31	31
2015	2	2
2016	4	4
2017	2	2
2018	0	7
2019	0	0
2020	0	1
2021	1	3
2022	0	1
2023	1	1
2024	0	0
2025	8	11
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 10 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

A dry month (12 mm)↑
High fuel load↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon8°

Tue7°

Wed4°

Thu1°

Fri1°

Sat0°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.0 · usual 0.0–0.0

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – early May

Onset: early April
Peak: early May
End: early May

Critical windows

late March – mid May
92% of annual activity
mid September – early October
4% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −26%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.68). ODLAR's record changes level in 2017 (p 0.01): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

10

2001
8
season ended 20 weeks late
2003
1
season ended 22 weeks late
2005
2
season ended 22 weeks late
2006
1
season ended 21 weeks late
2008
62
peak 28× stronger than normal
2011
1
season ended 23 weeks late
2012
29
peak 12× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks late
2013
71
peak 36× stronger than normal
2014
31
peak 16× stronger than normal
2025
8
season began 16 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson