McKillop No. 220

Next 7 daysLow10%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 201538
Trend: −15%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +71%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	13	1
2002	8	0
2003	17	9
2004	10	1
2005	16	3
2006	19	4
2007	23	11
2008	13	3
2009	9	3
2010	10	4
2011	9	2
2012	2	2
2013	16	16
2014	7	7
2015	38	38
2016	21	21
2017	22	22
2018	12	32
2019	0	2
2020	15	31
2021	13	25
2022	2	7
2023	11	21
2024	13	25
2025	4	17
2026	1	4

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.8
Rank: 19 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue9°

Wed5°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.7

likely 0.0–2.3 · usual 0.0–1.0

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – early November

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
39% of annual activity
late September – early November
38% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −15%/10Raw: +71%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.7× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.74).

Unusual years

10

2003
17
season began 3 weeks late
2009
9
season ended 3 weeks late
2012
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 21 weeks early
2015
38
3.0× the normal annual activity
2016
21
season ended 4 weeks late
2018
12
season began 3 weeks late
2021
13
season began 11 weeks early
2022
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 5 weeks late
2023
11
season began 7 weeks late
2025
4
only 0.3× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson