Caledonia No. 99

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 201410
Trend: −34%/ 10significant · on raw data: +49%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	5	1
2002	3	0
2003	2	0
2004	2	0
2005	6	2
2006	2	0
2007	2	0
2008	2	0
2009	2	0
2010	2	0
2011	2	1
2012	3	3
2013	2	2
2014	10	10
2015	6	6
2016	5	5
2017	4	4
2018	1	2
2019	4	5
2020	1	1
2021	0	1
2022	3	5
2023	2	3
2024	0	0
2025	0	3
2026	0	4

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

A dry month (15 mm)↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun10°

Mon12°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.0 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – mid October

Onset: early April
Peak: early May
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
41% of annual activity
early October – mid October
20% of annual activity
early September – mid September
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −34%/10Raw: +49%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 9.8× its earlier level (p 0.004). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.10).

Unusual years

13

2001
5
2.3× the normal annual activity
2005
6
2.6× the normal annual activity
2012
3
season ended 17 weeks early
2013
2
season began 16 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks early
2014
10
4.4× the normal annual activity
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
2015
6
2.6× the normal annual activity
2016
5
2.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 8 weeks late
2017
4
season ended 22 weeks early
2018
1
season ended 21 weeks early
2019
4
season ended 21 weeks early
2020
1
season began 21 weeks late
2022
3
season began 22 weeks late
2023
2
season ended 22 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson