Duck Lake No. 463

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early April – late May
Record year: 202360
Trend: −6%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +34%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7	3
2002	3	0
2003	2	1
2004	2	0
2005	5	4
2006	6	2
2007	3	1
2008	8	6
2009	10	6
2010	2	1
2011	8	5
2012	1	1
2013	5	5
2014	4	4
2015	11	11
2016	2	2
2017	4	4
2018	4	22
2019	0	0
2020	0	0
2021	1	6
2022	1	2
2023	60	116
2024	7	14
2025	10	16
2026	715	2303

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

This year is more active than normal↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun8°

Mon7°

Tue7°

Wed2°

Thu4°

Fri2°

Sat−1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~0.0 expected · usual 1.3

likely 0.0–3.2 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – late September

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: late September

Critical windows

early April – late May
76% of annual activity
early October – mid October
4% of annual activity
early August – mid August
3% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −6%/10Raw: +34%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.26). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.63).

Unusual years

10

2009
10
season ended 18 weeks early
2012
1
season ended 21 weeks early
2013
5
season ended 21 weeks early
2015
11
season ended 18 weeks early
2017
4
season began 22 weeks late
2021
1
season ended 27 weeks early
2022
1
season began 37 weeks late
2023
60
15× the normal annual activity
peak 20× stronger than normal
season ended 23 weeks early
2025
10
season ended 22 weeks early
2026
715
179× the normal annual activity
peak 238× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson