Weyburn No. 67

Next 7 daysLow6%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – mid May
Record year: 201549
Trend: −43%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	20	7
2002	12	3
2003	7	4
2004	6	4
2005	14	7
2006	12	6
2007	3	1
2008	20	10
2009	8	3
2010	8	4
2011	3	2
2012	3	3
2013	2	2
2014	2	2
2015	49	49
2016	26	26
2017	18	18
2018	5	9
2019	0	0
2020	5	16
2021	1	4
2022	2	5
2023	1	3
2024	4	7
2025	2	2
2026	0	1

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
A dry month (12 mm)↑

Sun9°

Mon10°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri3°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.5

likely 0.0–1.6 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~26 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early November

Onset: mid April
Peak: late April
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – mid May
42% of annual activity
late September – early November
34% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −43%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.51). ODLAR's record changes level in 2018 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2002
12
season ended 15 weeks early
2004
6
season ended 4 weeks early
2013
2
season began 13 weeks late
2014
2
season ended 7 weeks early
2015
49
9.8× the normal annual activity
season ended 4 weeks late
2018
5
season began 25 weeks late
2020
5
season ended 25 weeks early
2021
1
season began 24 weeks late
2022
2
season began 16 weeks late
2023
1
season began 25 weeks late
2025
2
season ended 5 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson