Lomond No. 37

Next 7 daysLow10%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 201548
Trend: −24%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +47%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	16	2
2002	13	1
2003	9	0
2004	13	1
2005	24	6
2006	22	7
2007	13	2
2008	19	4
2009	8	0
2010	9	0
2011	16	4
2012	20	20
2013	29	29
2014	23	23
2015	48	48
2016	26	26
2017	6	6
2018	23	51
2019	3	11
2020	6	16
2021	17	29
2022	1	3
2023	7	10
2024	3	9
2025	10	14
2026	10	32

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun11°

Mon13°

Tue11°

Wed5°

Thu3°

Fri3°

Sat2°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.7

likely 0.0–2.1 · usual 0.0–0.8

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – late October

Onset: mid April
Peak: early May
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
36% of annual activity
early October – early November
23% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −24%/10Raw: +47%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 8.6× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.05).

Unusual years

10

2012
20
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 10 weeks early
2016
26
season began 3 weeks early
2017
6
season ended 6 weeks late
2018
23
season began 15 weeks late
2019
3
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks early
2020
6
season ended 26 weeks early
2021
17
season began 3 weeks early
2023
7
season ended 24 weeks early
2024
3
season ended 18 weeks early
2025
10
season began 4 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson