Terrell No. 101

Next 7 daysLow7%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – early June
Record year: 202310
Trend: −2%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +61%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3	0
2002	3	0
2003	2	0
2004	2	1
2005	6	2
2006	3	0
2007	3	1
2008	2	0
2009	2	0
2010	2	0
2011	2	1
2012	3	3
2013	6	6
2014	4	4
2015	6	6
2016	9	9
2017	4	4
2018	1	5
2019	9	17
2020	5	5
2021	0	1
2022	0	0
2023	10	17
2024	0	0
2025	0	0
2026	0	3

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun10°

Mon12°

Tue10°

Wed6°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Sat1°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.1 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~24 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – late October

Onset: late April
Peak: late May
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – early June
46% of annual activity
early October – late October
18% of annual activity
late August – late August
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −2%/10Raw: +61%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 12.1× its earlier level (p 0.04). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.53).

Unusual years

11

2005
6
peak 6.8× stronger than normal
2012
3
peak 6.1× stronger than normal
season began 16 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks early
2013
6
peak 10× stronger than normal
season began 12 weeks late
2014
4
peak 6.1× stronger than normal
season ended 8 weeks early
2015
6
peak 10× stronger than normal
season ended 21 weeks early
2016
9
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 10× stronger than normal
2017
4
peak 8.1× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 21 weeks early
2018
1
season began 26 weeks late
2019
9
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 8.1× stronger than normal
season ended 14 weeks early
2020
5
peak 6.1× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks late
2023
10
3.9× the normal annual activity
peak 12× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson